There are three M&A playbooks in HVAC. All three are working.

The M&A roll-up playbook in HVAC is operating at three completely different scales right now — and all three are working.

Path 1 — Private Equity: Buy big, average down.

Pay 18x for a $100M EBITDA platform. Then execute add-on acquisitions at 6x–8x to blend the entry multiple down toward ~10x over the hold period. This is the model running at the top of the market right now — Blackstone, Goldman, Carlyle. The trick is access to high-quality platform assets at scale and the discipline to actually execute the add-on cadence post-close.

Path 2 — Independent Sponsor: Buy small, scale up.

Buy sub-scale HVAC companies in the 4x–6x range. Professionalize the back office, integrate operations and brand, build to ~$5M+ EBITDA, then sell the assembled platform for 10x+. Capital comes deal-by-deal from family offices, HNW LPs, and SBIC funds rather than a committed pool. Slower than institutional PE but with a much wider field of acquisition targets.

Path 3 — Operator: Buy distressed, fix it.

The deepest end of the spectrum. Buy a distressed situation for cents on the dollar — sometimes literally $100K for a business with ($200K) of EBITDA — turn around operations, and start cash flowing in 90 days. Doesn't scale, but the returns on capital deployed are spectacular when the operator knows what they're doing.

Same industry, different game.

The honest framing: all three paths are working right now. I've met investors actively running each one of these strategies, and every single one of them is making money. Which path is right depends on capital base, operational skill set, and risk tolerance — not on which one is objectively "best."

HVAC is unusual in that it offers a viable M&A entry point at every scale. Most industries don't.